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NEW DELHI: Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran has cautioned that the world is entering a turbulent two-decade cycle echoing the geopolitical upheaval of the early 20th century, even as he insisted that the public heavily underestimates India’s underlying strength and dismissed fears of AI-driven job losses as overstated.Speaking on the Professor Mahesh Podcast, an IITM Global initiative at IIT-Madras, the CEA said the global order faces severe flux between 2026 and 2046. “The next 20 years will mimic to some extent the period between 1925 and 1945,” he warned, urging corporations to shift from “just-in-time” efficiency to “just-in-case” resilience as nations increasingly weaponise supply chains and financial systems. He stressed that, in this environment, businesses worldwide would increasingly prioritise security and self-reliance over the pursuit of the lowest possible cost.Nageswaran argued that India is far better placed than commonly believed. He noted that the country is among only two or three nations capable of simultaneously growing its own food, launching its own satellites, and manufacturing vital pharmaceuticals such as paracetamol and antibiotics — a baseline strength he said is routinely overlooked.Elaborating on AI, he contended that the technology would increase the cognitive load on humans rather than replace them, adding that students must master prompt composition because the quality of outputs depends on the quality of inputs. He flagged trade skills — electrical work, mechanical maintenance and plumbing — as opportunities relatively insulated from AI disruption.Describing the country as a “living economics laboratory” unmatched anywhere on Earth, Nageswaran evoked an observation attributed to economist Joan Robinson. “Whatever you say about India, the opposite can be equally true,” he said, pointing to the paradox of a nation undertaking massive socio-economic transformation within a vibrant democracy before attaining full prosperity.The CEA also pushed back against frequently cited international data on India’s informal sector, arguing that reforms such as the Goods and Services Tax had accelerated formalisation of MSMEs. Citing internal assessments, he said the economy was now roughly 65% formalised.Turning to education, Nageswaran urged institutions to embrace interdisciplinary learning. Studying engineering or computer science in isolation was no longer sufficient, he said; a grounding in economics, history and political economy was essential to navigate an increasingly non-linear world.The wide-ranging conversation with Professor Mahesh Panchagnula, hosted at IIT Madras, offered policymakers, corporate leaders and students a roadmap for future-proofing careers amid global uncertainty and rapid technological change.
