Xplorich
NEW DELHI: El Nino – a climatic phenomena associated with weak monsoon in India – may pose a risk over farming operations but the records of the past decade show the country could effectively manage its impact in 2023 when India reported ‘below normal’ rainfall due to strong El Nino. The year 2015, drought year due to severe El Nino, was the last such year when the food-grain output dipped. Even 2018 reported ‘below normal’ rainfall due to other climatic factors but the country ended up with the figure of then record food-grain production.It could be possible due to timely deployment of contingency measures and the constant efforts to make Indian agriculture ‘drought-proof’ through expanding footprints of irrigation networks, emphasis on micro (drip and sprinkler) irrigation, judicious choice of less water-consuming crops and use of drought-resistant seeds.Amid the El Nino risk, IMD this year too predicted ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall during June-Sept period with 60% probability of its being ‘deficient’, triggering a fear of drought. India had last reported two back-to-back drought years in 2014 and 2015 with recording 12% and 14% deficit, respectively, in overall seasonal rainfall. India has, so far, reported more than 35% of deficit in overall cumulative monsoon rainfall after its onset over Kerala on June 4, impacting sowing operations in certain states.Sensing the urgency and underlining the importance of timely crop-wise contingency measures, Union agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Tuesday held a meeting on the El Niño situation and directed coordinated meetings with district officials, Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) and other extension agencies in 12 states where El Nino’s impact is likely to be “relatively severe” during the Kharif season.The vulnerable states include Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. Though total 197 districts across the country have been identified as the most vulnerable to the impact of El Nino, contingency measures are being prepared in 326 districts across these 12 states. Majority of the vulnerable districts fall under the ‘monsoon core zone’ – the region which depends on monsoon rains for farming operations.A study done by the ICAR-Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research in 2023 shows that the El Niño years (2002, 2004 and 2009) in the past reduced output of key Kharif crops such as paddy and maize by more than 10% in 77 and 65 districts, respectively, in different states across the country.Similarly, 2015-16 reported a 5% decline in overall food-grain output due to severe El Nino in 2015. But there was no looking back after that as the output keeps on increasing since 2016-17, irrespective of the percentage of quantitative rainfall.Chouhan in the meeting emphasized that a separate and practical strategy should be formulated for each of the vulnerable districts, with special attention to water conservation, moisture management, inter-cropping, and alternative cropping patterns.Asserting that instead of exaggerating the danger, “calm, reliable, and solution-oriented messages based on scientific analysis” should reach the farmers, he said the entire situation should be clarified at the district level and an awareness campaign should be run among farmers, so that every farmer knows which precautions and which crop options are safer for his area.
