PK is making a second attempt to establish himself as an electoral force by staking his claim in the Bankipur bypoll

NEW DELHI: Will Bihar’s Bankipur stand with the BJP, as it has over the years, or will it give Prashant Kishor a victory on debut? Or, will Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD will finally have something to cheer about? The fate of the three key contenders in the crucial byelection have been sealed in EVM machines and the people’s verdict will be known on August 3, when the votes are counted. So, what made this by-election grab so much of national attention?The Bankipur bypoll was necessitated after Nitin Nabin, who represented the urban Patna seat for nearly two decades, resigned from Bihar assembly to become a member of Rajya Sabha. This followed his elevation as BJP president earlier this year. The Bankipur seat has been a BJP bastion for over three decades with Nitin Nabin’s family winning from the constituency for over 35 years. Before Nitin Nabin, the constituency was represented by his father Nabin Kishore Prasad Sinha. And that explains why winning today’s election is so important for the BJP.But what could have been a cakewalk for BJP and its chief Nitin Nabin was turned into a formidable challenge with the entry of election strategist turned politician Prashant Kishor in the election arena. Kishor’s entry made today’s election a three-cornered contest. For Prashant Kishor, whose party Jan Suraj was outrightly rejected by the people of the state in the assembly elections last year, this bypoll is a litmus test. Kishor, who has scripted success stories of several parties and leaders as an election-strategist, would hope that the people of Bankipur would give his political career a much-needed boost.And finally the RJD, the third pole of this electoral battle, would desperately hope that the people of Bankipur would have voted today for a change. The RJD, which was literally decimated by the ruling NDA in the 2025 assembly elections, will be keen to prove a political point.Polling concluded with a voter turnout of 34.16 per cent among the nearly 3.8 lakh eligible electors, with counting of votes scheduled for August 3.As expected, the polling today was marked by allegations and counter allegations. Both Prashant Kishor and RJD candidate Rekha Gupta trained their guns at the BJP. Prashant Kishore alleged that more than 30 of his party workers had been arrested during polling and accused the police administration of acting “completely one-sidedly” to intimidate voters and help the BJP. “In an organised manner, wherever people of Jan Suraaj have set up tables, these people are taking them away. Across entire Bankipur, it’s evident that it’s not the BJP contesting this bypoll but the police force. People are being intimidated right from the night by going to their homes; some are being arrested,” he said.RJD candidate Rekha Gupta accused BJP workers of violating the Model Code of Conduct by allegedly attempting to influence voters at polling stations. “The BJP has hatched a conspiracy. All the polling agents have been given BJP ID cards,” Gupta alleged, while urging the election authorities to take note of the matter,” she said.The BJP rubbished these charges and instead accused that Jan Suraaj Party workers were “attempting to cast fraudulent votes” in the Bankipur assembly bypoll and urged the Election Commission to strengthen verification of electors. BJP state general secretary Nitin Abhishek wrote a letter to the returning officer of the assembly, claiming that such practices undermine the fundamental principles of democracy.“It has come to our notice that representatives and workers associated with the Jan Suraaj Party are attempting to compromise the integrity of the polling process by attempting to cast fraudulent/fake votes in the Bankipur bypoll,” the BJP said in the letter.

Why Bankipur is being watched closely

Bypolls, anywhere in the country, attract little interest. For the NDA, which won 202 out of 243 seats in the assembly elections, the result of one seat should hardly matter.However, this bypoll is the first election after Samrat Choudhary took over the chief ministerial post from Nitish Kumar.The assembly election was fought with the NDA projecting Nitish as its chief ministerial face. However, Nitish resigned from the top post to take up a Rajya Sabha seat, handing over the reins to Choudhary.The Bankipur bypoll offers the first electoral test of public approval for Choudhary as chief minister.

Realising the importance of the seat, the BJP left little to chance in Bankipur. The party mobilised an entire roster of NDA ministers, former ministers, MPs and MLAs to campaign for its candidate, Neeraj Kumar Sinha.Former chief minister Nitish Kumar also joined the campaign through a video appeal, urging voters to support the BJP candidate. On the ground, the party kept up a hectic schedule of bike rallies, Adhivakta Samwad, Chikitsa Samwad, roadshows and door-to-door outreach in an effort to consolidate support.Bankipur’s caste composition also makes the bypoll an interesting contest. The constituency has nearly 3.8 lakh voters, with Kayasths and Yadavs together making up around 25 per cent of the electorate.The BJP has traditionally enjoyed strong support among Kayasths. Muslims and Chandravanshis together account for nearly 20 per cent of voters, while Vaishyas, Dalits, Bhumihars, Rajputs, Brahmins, Kurmis and Kushwahas each constitute between 3 per cent and 8 per cent of the electorate.

Tough road for BJP?

Prashant Kishor’s political gambit, along with developments such as Bharat Tiwari’s encounter and the recent student protests in Patna, has made the bypoll harder for the BJP than the party initially anticipated.The first setback came even before the campaign gathered pace. The BJP’s initial candidate, Abhishek Kumar Sinha, withdrew from the contest after reports emerged that a close family member had been convicted in the fodder scam.The BJP later replaced him with 32-year-old Neeraj Kumar Sinha after the party’s Central Election Committee approved his candidature.Another challenge for the ruling party is the reported resentment among sections of the upper-caste community following the June encounter of Bharat Tiwari.Tiwari was killed during a standoff with the police and Special Task Force personnel on June 17. In the aftermath, chief minister Samrat Choudhary met Tiwari’s family and assured them of a transparent investigation, the preservation of evidence and strict action against those found guilty.The recent student unrest has added another dimension to the campaign. Bankipur is home to several colleges, universities and coaching institutes, making students a significant voting bloc in the constituency.Large student protests over issues such as employment, education and alleged irregularities in competitive examinations have heightened political engagement among young voters.Police action during some of these demonstrations also attracted widespread attention on social media, ensuring that education, jobs and governance remain central themes in the bypoll campaign.Both Kishor and RJD working president Tejashwi Yadav blamed Samrat Choudhary for the action against protesters.The state government, too, was quick to respond. After a Bihar bandh called by Left-wing student unions on July 25, police detained close to 700 protesters, of whom nearly half were let off after they turned out to be minors.While talking to The Times of India, political analyst Kumar Vijay predicted a tough contest on July 30.“BJP initially thought this election would be fairly easy. Perhaps that’s why it made a mistake in choosing its candidate. And when the second candidate was chosen, he too appeared to be a potentially weak opponent to Prashant Kishor, despite the constituency having several prominent leaders to choose from,” Vijay said.

“But now BJP is seeing this contest turn tight. That’s why it has fielded 50 star campaigners for a single bypoll. And wherever these leaders have gone to campaign, they have faced opposition. This did not happen earlier,” he told TOI.He added that if Prashant Kishor manages to consolidate Muslim, Yadav, women and fringe voters, it could spell trouble for the BJP.“It is time for the BJP to reconsider its strategy, way of working and decision-making process,” he added.Meanwhile, BJP state vice-president Santosh Pathak asserted that the party would easily win the bypoll. Although he acknowledged resentment among upper-caste voters, he claimed that they would ultimately vote for the BJP on July 30.“Prashant Kishor’s entry has only added glamour to the election. Beyond that, there is nothing new about this contest. This time too, we will win by a good margin,” Pathak said while talking to The Times of India.

“There is some resentment among Brahmins and Bhumihars, but they will still vote for the BJP. Bankipur is a backward-oriented seat. The people creating all the buzz are not voters of this assembly constituency,” he added.

Why it’s an all-at-stake contest for PK

Describing the contest as a “referendum” on the two-month-old BJP-led NDA government in Bihar, Prashant sought to transform what would ordinarily have been a local bypoll into one of the state’s most closely watched electoral battles.“The upcoming by-election is going to be a referendum on the working of the two-month-old government of Samrat Choudhary,” Prashant had said after announcing his candidature.“If the BJP wins, I will have no hesitation in conceding that the saffron party continues to enjoy public support. If we win, it shall be for them to read the writing on the wall,” he added.Despite several prominent leaders leaving Jan Suraaj, Kishor remained visible through mohalla meetings, adda baithaks, chai baithaks, padyatras, interactions with intellectuals and Jan Samwad programmes.However, the bypoll is also a test of Kishor’s own political project.A victory would give Jan Suraaj its first electoral breakthrough and help the party carve out political space in Bihar.A defeat, however, would make the road to revival even harder for the party. With no major election scheduled in Bihar before the 2029 Lok Sabha polls, the stakes could hardly be higher.

Challenge for RJD

This bypoll carries almost as much weight for the RJD, which put in a lacklustre show in the assembly elections and is now keen to keep its Muslim-Yadav vote bank from eroding. At the same time, Prashant Kishor’s rising profile, even if symbolic for now and confined to a single seat, poses a different kind of threat: the RJD cannot afford to cede its place as the principal challenger to the BJP.That dilemma captures the existential challenge confronting Tejashwi Yadav’s party. Should Jan Suraaj emerge as the leading anti-BJP force in Bankipur, it would inevitably chip away at the RJD’s standing as Bihar’s primary opposition party.The RJD has fielded Rekha Gupta, also known as Rekha Kumari, for the bypoll. She had contested the same seat in the November 2025 assembly polls, where she secured close to 47,000 votes.

What the opinion poll says

An opinion poll by VoteVibe suggests that the BJP retains the upper hand in Bankipur, but Prashant Kishor’s entry has transformed what was once seen as a one-sided contest.The survey projects the BJP to secure 44.9 per cent of the vote, comfortably ahead of Jan Suraaj at 33.8 per cent, while the RJD is estimated to finish a distant third with 17.8 per cent.

The RJD appears to have suffered the biggest setback. According to the poll, its vote share is projected to decline from 29.8 per cent in the 2025 assembly polls to 17.8 per cent in Bankipur.The Bankipur bypoll has all the makings of a David and Goliath contest, though it is not entirely clear who fits which role. The BJP appears to be the giant. It has held the seat continuously since 1995, is backed by the resources of the ruling government and has deployed 50 star campaigners for a single bypoll.